Burlington, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

704
FXUS61 KBTV 130653
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
253 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot conditions will linger in Vermont as humidity increases
ahead of a weak frontal system. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will occur today into this evening, with
potential for a couple of stronger storms. Chances for
thunderstorms wind down by tomorrow afternoon as conditions
turn a bit cooler, and aside from Sunday, dry areawide.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 248 AM EDT Wednesday...
* A Heat Advisory continues today in the Champlain Valley,
  where heat will build before showers and thunderstorms move
  into the area this afternoon.

Early this morning an area of showers and thunderstorms is
moving eastward through northern Ohio and the vicinity of Lake
Ontario, tied to pieces of vorticity embedded in a shortwave
trough. This forcing for ascent will slide northeastward into
northern New York this morning and northern Vermont in the
afternoon. Ahead of this shortwave, higher dew points will
surge eastward, with values largely in the upper 60s to near 70
by afternoon making it into western Vermont. As surface heating
helps reduce convective inhibition and increase instability with
temperatures approaching 90, coverage and intensity of
thunderstorms should increase. The latest model guidance
suggests this blossoming of thunderstorms could coincide with
peak heating in the 2 - 3PM timeframe in the Champlain Valley as
surface-based CAPE surges close to 2000 J/kg. Due to terrain-
driven increases in low- level wind shear, an isolated stronger
thunderstorm capable of damaging wind gusts is something to
watch for. However, most storms should be garden variety today.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop in northern
New York ahead of the surface cold front during the afternoon
and evening hours, while more isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms continue in central and eastern Vermont. Most
areas should see at least some rain even if the cores of the
thunderstorms miss, ending a run of at least 2 weeks of dry
conditions in some locations. Locally heavy rainfall within the
stronger thunderstorms, in excess of 1", is expected, although
potential for excessive rain given recent dryness is low despite
some favorable ingredients for torrential rainfall rates. For
tonight, given light winds and moist air in place, locations
that see rain will be primed for fog. Have added patchy fog
overnight in most areas, but expect some fog could develop as
soon as sunset. While a few more showers and thunderstorms will
be ongoing as well, precipitation chances will be relatively low
after sunset.

Weak cold air advection will gradually filter southward late
tonight into tomorrow. With plentiful dry air aloft but
lingering surface moisture, it remains to be seen if any
thunderstorms can redevelop as a secondary trough swings through
behind the surface cold front. Forecast soundings generally
suggest it would be difficult to have enough instability to see
any thunderstorms, and they still look more favorable early in
the day and in southern/eastern portions of our region.
Otherwise, by and large it will be a return to dry weather, as
humid air gets replaced by comfortable air during the afternoon
from north to south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 252 AM EDT Wednesday...Quiet weather is expected with
anticyclonic flow and surface ridging in control. The high
pressure area will be centered to our north, supporting low
humidity with light northerly winds. The air mass still will be
a touch warmer than average, and with plentiful sunshine, high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
The dry air will support a large temperature range; at daybreak
Friday morning expect lows to primarily fall into the mid 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...We`ll have a warm start to the weekend
as Saturday will feature ample sunshine and highs reaching into the
80s, with a few spots in the wider valleys possibly hitting 90F. A
cold front will push across the region on Sunday, bringing a chance
for showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon. It`s
this cold front that will finally bring us real relief from the
prolonged heat over the past several days. Temperatures will be near
to below seasonal normals through the first part of the work week,
with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Unfortunately,
with high pressure settling over the area, we do expect dry weather
to resume post-frontal passage as well, likely lingering through
much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail
at all terminals with mostly clear skies overnight. Increasing
clouds and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
are expected during the day Wednesday as a weak cold front
pushes through the region. Shower activity may start arriving
into northern New York as early as 14z, with more shower and
thunderstorm activity developing during the afternoon. With low
confidence in timing/placement of convection Confidence on the
exact timing and location of any storms is low at this time, so
have mainly limited mention in TAFs to PROB30, generally
17z-23z. Exception is KMSS/KSLK where coverage should be a
little more widespread. As with any convective showers, brief
reductions in visibility are possible if a shower passes
overhead, but otherwise mostly VFR conditions are expected.
Light, terrain-driven winds overnight will increase from the
south between 5 to 10 knots through the daylight hours.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record daily high temperatures were reached the last two, hot days:

Max Temp Records

August 11th - Observed|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
             91|90(2016) 95|93(2016) 91|91(1970) 90|93(1944)

August 12th - Observed|Record (Year)
KBTV         KMPV        KMSS        KPBG        KSLK
98|93(2002)  91|89(2021) 95|91(1988) 93|90(2007) 91|93(1944)


&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ001-002-005-
     009-016-017.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026-027-087.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ028-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Kutikoff
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings
CLIMATE...WFO BTV